Astros try to remain hot in Chicago
Baseball Betting Lines
09/06/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Recently red-hot lefty Wandy Rodriguez and his similarly
streaking Houston teammates try to make it three straight wins when the Astros
head to Wrigley Field today for the first of three consecutive games with the
host Chicago Cubs.
A 31-year-old Dominican, Rodriguez was 6-11 on the season after a 4-2 loss to
St. Louis on July 11, but has since won five of seven decisions over nine
starts while lowering his earned run average more than a run, from 4.97 to
3.71.
The first start in that stretch came against the Cubs on July 19, when
Rodriguez allowed eight hits and five runs in six innings to get the win in
Houston's 11-5 rout at Wrigley. The victory moved him to 5-4 in 15 lifetime
starts against Chicago.
The Astros come into this series after winning two of three against Arizona
and five of six overall. Hunter Pence's three-run home run in the first inning
stood up as the deciding hit as Houston won, 3-2, over the Diamondbacks Sunday
at Chase Field.
Pence finished 2-for-4 and Jeff Keppinger added a hit and a run scored for the
Astros.
J.A. Happ (6-2) continued his fine pitching since being acquired from
Philadelphia, as he yielded two runs on six hits while walking two and
striking out seven over seven frames to grab the win. Astros closer Brandon
Lyon worked around a one-out double in the ninth to register his 13th save.
The Cubs counter Rodriguez with rookie right-hander Casey Coleman, a 2008
draft pick who'll start for the fourth time in his eighth major-league
appearance.
The Fort Myers, FL native, a product of the fledgling program at Florida Gulf
Coast University, debuted in the majors with 2 1/2 innings of relief against
Milwaukee on Aug. 2. He made all seven career appearances in the month,
including a 9-1 win at Washington on Aug. 23 in which he allowed three hits
and a run in 6 1/3 innings.
One start since yielded a no-decision in Cincinnati, where Coleman allowed
eight hits and four runs in six innings of the Cubs' 7-5 loss on Aug. 29
In 25 overall innings, Coleman has given up 27 hits and 16 runs. He has never
faced the Astros.
The Cubs will be trying to bounce back from Sunday's lopsided loss to the
Mets, in which Ike Davis finished a triple shy of the cycle, drove in three
runs and scored three times as New York Mets dominated Chicago, 18-5, at
Wrigley.
Aramis Ramirez hit a two-run homer and knocked in a total of three runs for
Chicago, which saw a three-game win streak come to an end. Geovany Soto also
homered in the loss.
Cubs starter Ryan Dempster (12-10) got rocked over 4 2/3 frames, giving up
seven runs -- three earned -- on nine hits to suffer his second straight loss.
He fanned five batters and walked four.
Houston has got the better of the Cubs for much of this season, having taken
eight of 12 previous meetings between the clubs in 2010. The Astros have won
four of the six matchups held at Wrigley Field as well.
<< Latos tries to end Padres 10-game slide in meeting with Dodgers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Mat Latos' quick emergence into a frontline pitcher is a
big reason why the San Diego Padres have stood atop the National League West
for the majority of the 2010 campaign. With his team mired in by far their
worst stretch o
<< Giants target first place as they continue road trip in Arizona
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With first place in the National League's West Division now
within their grasp, the San Francisco Giants continue a critical road trip
today with the first of three straight meetings with the Arizona Diamondbacks
from Chase F
<< Rockies hope to extend charge as they battle Reds
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Don't look now, but the Colorado Rockies may about to be
putting together one of those strong September runs that has propelled them
into the postseason in years past.
After climbing back into the National League West rac
<< Villanova loses starting defensive end
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Defending FCS national champion Villanova
has lost sophomore Marlon Johnson, its only returning starter on the defensive
line, to a season-ending ACL injury.
Johnson, a defensive end, suffered the injury d
<< Phillies bring up Robertson, Worley to start Monday
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies bolstered their
bullpen Monday with two additions, bringing up lefties Nate Robertson and Mike
Zagurski, and recalling Vance Worley from Triple-A Lehigh Valley to start
Monday
Division rivals collide as Mariners visit A's >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Second-year lefty Brett Anderson can pitch the Oakland
Athletics a game closer to .500 and keep them an outside contender in the
American League playoff race today, when the team hosts the Seattle Mariners
for the first of th
Cardinals to begin critical road trip with clash vs. Brewers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off a much-needed series win, the playoff-hopeful
St. Louis Cardinals know they still have a lot of work to do.
St. Louis continues that uphill battle this afternoon with the opener of a
three-game series at Miller
Santana scratched from Tuesday start >>
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Mets ace Johan Santana will miss
his next scheduled start Tuesday versus Washington with a strained pectoral
muscle.
Santana was forced to leave his last assignment against the Braves Thurs
Underwhelming Madrid need special touch >>
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When Jose Mourinho left Inter Milan this
summer for the bright lights of the Bernabeu, he took a calculated risk. After
all, Inter had just come off a season where they won both the domestic league
and cu
Rangers scratch Lee from Tuesday start >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers have scratched lefty Cliff
Lee from his scheduled start Tuesday against the Blue Jays because of a
strained muscle in his lower back.
Lee was given an injection to deal with disc
Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions
Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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